Election Modeller
Independent UK polling research
Examine published voting-intention observations, historical trends and hypothetical electoral scenarios. We analyse existing evidence; we do not conduct opinion polls.
Three distinct layers: sourced observations, descriptive analysis and user-defined assumptions.
National polling observations
Latest reported voting intention
As of 2026-11-04 · All figures are approved observations, not a weighted polling average.
Most recent import represented in these approved records: 02 Nov 2026, 18:31 (site time). Survey groups are provisionally identified by pollster, observation date and recorded source; multiple distinct surveys can share those fields.
Latest individual observations
Different parties may come from different surveys or dates. Do not add the percentages together.
All bars use the same 0–100% scale; they show reported percentages, not forecasts.
Opinium — 2026-10-30
One grouped survey, using its available reported party figures. Unreported parties are not zero.
All bars use the same 0–100% scale; they show reported percentages, not forecasts.
BMG Research — 2026-10-29
One grouped survey, using its available reported party figures. Unreported parties are not zero.
All bars use the same 0–100% scale; they show reported percentages, not forecasts.
More in Common — 2026-10-26
One grouped survey, using its available reported party figures. Unreported parties are not zero.
All bars use the same 0–100% scale; they show reported percentages, not forecasts.
YouGov — 2026-10-26
One grouped survey, using its available reported party figures. Unreported parties are not zero.
All bars use the same 0–100% scale; they show reported percentages, not forecasts.
Ipsos — 2026-10-22
One grouped survey, using its available reported party figures. Unreported parties are not zero.
All bars use the same 0–100% scale; they show reported percentages, not forecasts.
Trajectory — 2026-10-14
One grouped survey, using its available reported party figures. Unreported parties are not zero.
All bars use the same 0–100% scale; they show reported percentages, not forecasts.
More in Common — 2026-10-12
One grouped survey, using its available reported party figures. Unreported parties are not zero.
All bars use the same 0–100% scale; they show reported percentages, not forecasts.
YouGov — 2026-10-12
One grouped survey, using its available reported party figures. Unreported parties are not zero.
All bars use the same 0–100% scale; they show reported percentages, not forecasts.
Freshwater Strategy — 2026-10-11
One grouped survey, using its available reported party figures. Unreported parties are not zero.
All bars use the same 0–100% scale; they show reported percentages, not forecasts.
Opinium — 2026-10-09
One grouped survey, using its available reported party figures. Unreported parties are not zero.
All bars use the same 0–100% scale; they show reported percentages, not forecasts.
Find Out Now — 2026-10-07
One grouped survey, using its available reported party figures. Unreported parties are not zero.
All bars use the same 0–100% scale; they show reported percentages, not forecasts.
Survation — 2026-10-05
One grouped survey, using its available reported party figures. Unreported parties are not zero.
All bars use the same 0–100% scale; they show reported percentages, not forecasts.
Survation — 2026-10-05
One grouped survey, using its available reported party figures. Unreported parties are not zero.
All bars use the same 0–100% scale; they show reported percentages, not forecasts.
Sources may be secondary aggregators. “Raw data” opens machine-readable records; original pollster reports are not automatically known. The chart is descriptive and does not infer an election outcome.
Each value is the latest individually approved observation for that party, not a polling average. Pollsters and fieldwork dates may differ; do not sum the values. Hypothetical scenarios are not election forecasts.